ESL Challenger League Season 52 South America Cup 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Isurus#186 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Grêmio#201 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Isurus pick
63%38%
Isurus · 15 mapsedge Isurus +25%Grêmio · 9 maps
InfernoGrêmio pick
50%54%
Isurus · 14 mapsnearly even -4%Grêmio · 9 maps
NukeIsurus ban
36%44%
Isurus · 10 mapsedge Grêmio +8%Grêmio · 5 maps
MirageGrêmio ban
50%30%
Isurus · 8 mapsedge Isurus +20%Grêmio · 6 maps
AncientIsurus ban
31%38%
Isurus · 9 mapsedge Grêmio +7%Grêmio · 4 maps
CacheGrêmio ban
64%38%
Isurus · 7 mapsedge Isurus +26%Grêmio · 4 maps
Defaultpossible decider
67%67%
Isurus · 2 mapsnearly even +0%Grêmio · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanIsurus remove Ancient
2. BanGrêmio remove Mirage
3. PickIsurus take Dust2
4. PickGrêmio take Inferno
5. BanGrêmio remove Cache
6. BanIsurus remove Nuke
DeciderDefault (67% / 67%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction correct7:13
Isurus 43%Grêmio 57%
The model gave 57% on Grêmio — the map was taken by Grêmio.
Cacheprediction correct13:7
Isurus 77%Grêmio 23%
The model gave 77% on Isurus — the map was taken by Isurus.
Dust2prediction missed14:16
Isurus 73%Grêmio 27%
The model gave 73% on Isurus — the map was taken by Grêmio.
Model check result
Model favoriteIsurus · 65%
Series resultGrêmio 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 3