ESL Challenger League Season 52 South America Cup 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Isurus#186 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 1:2
METANOIA Wolves#210 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Isurus pick
67%38%
Isurus · 14 mapsedge Isurus +29%METANOIA Wolves · 12 maps
InfernoMETANOIA Wolves pick
50%38%
Isurus · 14 mapsedge Isurus +12%METANOIA Wolves · 4 maps
MirageMETANOIA Wolves ban
50%14%
Isurus · 8 mapsedge Isurus +36%METANOIA Wolves · 10 maps
AncientIsurus ban
31%60%
Isurus · 9 mapsedge METANOIA Wolves +29%METANOIA Wolves · 6 maps
NukeIsurus ban
38%33%
Isurus · 9 mapsedge Isurus +5%METANOIA Wolves · 2 maps
CacheMETANOIA Wolves ban
60%29%
Isurus · 6 mapsedge Isurus +31%METANOIA Wolves · 3 maps
Defaultpossible decider
67%38%
Isurus · 2 mapsedge Isurus +29%METANOIA Wolves · 4 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanIsurus remove Ancient
2. BanMETANOIA Wolves remove Cache
3. PickIsurus take Dust2
4. PickMETANOIA Wolves take Inferno
5. BanMETANOIA Wolves remove Mirage
6. BanIsurus remove Nuke
DeciderDefault (67% / 38%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed7:13
Isurus 75%METANOIA Wolves 25%
The model gave 75% on Isurus — the map was taken by METANOIA Wolves.
Cacheprediction correct13:10
Isurus 81%METANOIA Wolves 19%
The model gave 81% on Isurus — the map was taken by Isurus.
Nukeprediction missed8:13
Isurus 56%METANOIA Wolves 44%
The model gave 56% on Isurus — the map was taken by METANOIA Wolves.
Model check result
Model favoriteIsurus · 67%
Series resultMETANOIA Wolves 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 3