CCT 2026 South America Series 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
Isurus#186 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Isurus pick
69%71%
Isurus · 12 mapsnearly even -2%Peladona · 3 maps
InfernoPeladona pick
56%67%
Isurus · 12 mapsedge Peladona +11%Peladona · 2 maps
MirageIsurus ban
50%50%
Isurus · 8 mapsnearly even +0%Peladona · 2 maps
Nukepossible decider
38%50%
Isurus · 9 mapsedge Peladona +12%Peladona · 0 maps
AncientIsurus ban
20%50%
Isurus · 6 mapsedge Peladona +30%Peladona · 0 maps
CachePeladona ban
60%50%
Isurus · 6 mapsedge Isurus +10%Peladona · 0 maps
DefaultPeladona ban
67%50%
Isurus · 2 mapsedge Isurus +17%Peladona · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanIsurus remove Ancient
2. BanPeladona remove Default
3. PickIsurus take Dust2
4. PickPeladona take Inferno
5. BanPeladona remove Cache
6. BanIsurus remove Mirage
DeciderNuke (38% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed13:11
Isurus 18%Peladona 82%
The model gave 82% on Peladona — the map was taken by Isurus.
Infernoprediction correct10:13
Isurus 42%Peladona 58%
The model gave 58% on Peladona — the map was taken by Peladona.
Dust2prediction correct5:13
Isurus 47%Peladona 53%
The model gave 53% on Peladona — the map was taken by Peladona.
Model check result
Model favoriteIsurus · 56%
Series resultPeladona 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 3