Thunderpick World Championship 2026 South America Series 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Isurus#186 in the world · win 2:1series probability
30%70%
probability at match start · final 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Isurus pick
56%63%
Isurus · 14 mapsedge UNO MILLE +7%UNO MILLE · 15 maps
InfernoUNO MILLE pick
44%62%
Isurus · 5 mapsedge UNO MILLE +18%UNO MILLE · 9 maps
AncientUNO MILLE ban
50%56%
Isurus · 8 mapsedge UNO MILLE +6%UNO MILLE · 5 maps
MirageUNO MILLE ban
58%44%
Isurus · 8 mapsedge Isurus +14%UNO MILLE · 5 maps
Overpasspossible decider
43%58%
Isurus · 3 mapsedge UNO MILLE +15%UNO MILLE · 8 maps
NukeIsurus ban
50%70%
Isurus · 4 mapsedge UNO MILLE +20%UNO MILLE · 6 maps
AnubisIsurus ban
50%60%
Isurus · 0 mapsedge UNO MILLE +10%UNO MILLE · 6 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanIsurus remove Anubis
2. BanUNO MILLE remove Ancient
3. PickIsurus take Dust2
4. PickUNO MILLE take Inferno
5. BanUNO MILLE remove Mirage
6. BanIsurus remove Nuke
DeciderOverpass (43% / 58%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction missed13:6
Isurus 31%UNO MILLE 69%
The model gave 69% on UNO MILLE — the map was taken by Isurus.
Dust2prediction correct9:13
Isurus 45%UNO MILLE 55%
The model gave 55% on UNO MILLE — the map was taken by UNO MILLE.
Nukeprediction missed13:5
Isurus 30%UNO MILLE 70%
The model gave 70% on UNO MILLE — the map was taken by Isurus.
Model check result
Model favoriteUNO MILLE · 70%
Series resultIsurus 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 3