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CCT 2026 Europe Series 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Johnny Speeds#73 in the world · loss 1:2
series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 1:2
100 Thieves#37 in the world · win 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Miragepossible decider
38%50%
Johnny Speeds · 9 mapsedge 100 Thieves +12%100 Thieves · 6 maps
Ancient100 Thieves pick
63%64%
Johnny Speeds · 4 mapsnearly even -1%100 Thieves · 10 maps
Dust2Johnny Speeds ban
54%78%
Johnny Speeds · 9 mapsedge 100 Thieves +24%100 Thieves · 5 maps
InfernoJohnny Speeds pick
70%55%
Johnny Speeds · 6 mapsedge Johnny Speeds +15%100 Thieves · 7 maps
Overpass100 Thieves ban
70%60%
Johnny Speeds · 6 mapsedge Johnny Speeds +10%100 Thieves · 1 map
Anubis100 Thieves ban
33%60%
Johnny Speeds · 5 mapsedge 100 Thieves +27%100 Thieves · 1 map
NukeJohnny Speeds ban
50%50%
Johnny Speeds · 0 mapsnearly even +0%100 Thieves · 6 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanJohnny Speeds remove Nuke
2. Ban100 Thieves remove Overpass
3. PickJohnny Speeds take Inferno
4. Pick100 Thieves take Ancient
5. Ban100 Thieves remove Anubis
6. BanJohnny Speeds remove Dust2
DeciderMirage (38% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed13:8
Johnny Speeds 45%100 Thieves 55%
The model gave 55% on 100 Thieves — the map was taken by Johnny Speeds.
Mirageprediction correct10:13
Johnny Speeds 41%100 Thieves 59%
The model gave 59% on 100 Thieves — the map was taken by 100 Thieves.
Dust2prediction correct3:13
Johnny Speeds 25%100 Thieves 75%
The model gave 75% on 100 Thieves — the map was taken by 100 Thieves.
Model check result
Model favorite100 Thieves · 61%
Series result100 Thieves 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3