Stake Pulse Beat II · BO3
result vs prediction
Johnny Speeds#73 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 0:2
BBL#49 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeBBL pick
50%53%
Johnny Speeds · 2 mapsnearly even -3%BBL · 11 maps
InfernoJohnny Speeds pick
70%50%
Johnny Speeds · 6 mapsedge Johnny Speeds +20%BBL · 6 maps
Ancientpossible decider
50%50%
Johnny Speeds · 4 mapsnearly even +0%BBL · 4 maps
CacheJohnny Speeds ban
50%38%
Johnny Speeds · 2 mapsedge Johnny Speeds +12%BBL · 4 maps
Dust2BBL ban
50%50%
Johnny Speeds · 6 mapsnearly even +0%BBL · 0 maps
MirageJohnny Speeds ban
33%50%
Johnny Speeds · 2 mapsedge BBL +17%BBL · 4 maps
AnubisBBL ban
57%40%
Johnny Speeds · 3 mapsedge Johnny Speeds +17%BBL · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanJohnny Speeds remove Mirage
2. BanBBL remove Dust2
3. PickJohnny Speeds take Inferno
4. PickBBL take Nuke
5. BanBBL remove Anubis
6. BanJohnny Speeds remove Cache
DeciderAncient (50% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct5:13
Johnny Speeds 36%BBL 64%
The model gave 64% on BBL — the map was taken by BBL.
Nukeprediction correct9:13
Johnny Speeds 44%BBL 56%
The model gave 56% on BBL — the map was taken by BBL.
Model check result
Model favoriteBBL · 54%
Series resultBBL 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2