Stake Pulse Beat I · BO3
result vs prediction
Johnny Speeds#73 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Betclic#65 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AnubisBetclic pick
50%65%
Johnny Speeds · 6 mapsedge Betclic +15%Betclic · 13 maps
NukeJohnny Speeds ban
50%40%
Johnny Speeds · 2 mapsedge Johnny Speeds +10%Betclic · 16 maps
Dust2Betclic ban
50%36%
Johnny Speeds · 10 mapsedge Johnny Speeds +14%Betclic · 7 maps
MirageJohnny Speeds ban
33%50%
Johnny Speeds · 8 mapsedge Betclic +17%Betclic · 8 maps
Ancientpossible decider
55%55%
Johnny Speeds · 7 mapsnearly even +0%Betclic · 7 maps
InfernoBetclic ban
73%29%
Johnny Speeds · 11 mapsedge Johnny Speeds +44%Betclic · 3 maps
OverpassJohnny Speeds pick
60%30%
Johnny Speeds · 6 mapsedge Johnny Speeds +30%Betclic · 6 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanJohnny Speeds remove Nuke
2. BanBetclic remove Inferno
3. PickJohnny Speeds take Overpass
4. PickBetclic take Anubis
5. BanBetclic remove Dust2
6. BanJohnny Speeds remove Mirage
DeciderAncient (55% / 55%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed4:13
Johnny Speeds 66%Betclic 34%
The model gave 66% on Johnny Speeds — the map was taken by Betclic.
Anubisprediction correct1:13
Johnny Speeds 33%Betclic 67%
The model gave 67% on Betclic — the map was taken by Betclic.
Model check result
Model favoriteBetclic · 53%
Series resultBetclic 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2