Esplay Elite Gaming Cup 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Johnny Speeds#57 in the world · win 2:0series probability
73%27%
probability at match start · final 2:0
MTX#179 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageMTX pick
33%40%
Johnny Speeds · 2 mapsedge MTX +7%MTX · 1 map
AncientMTX ban
67%50%
Johnny Speeds · 2 mapsedge Johnny Speeds +17%MTX · 0 maps
NukeJohnny Speeds ban
50%50%
Johnny Speeds · 0 mapsnearly even +0%MTX · 2 maps
Dust2Johnny Speeds pick
40%50%
Johnny Speeds · 1 mapedge MTX +10%MTX · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanJohnny Speeds remove Nuke
2. BanMTX remove Ancient
3. PickJohnny Speeds take Dust2
4. PickMTX take Mirage
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed13:11
Johnny Speeds 37%MTX 63%
The model gave 63% on MTX — the map was taken by Johnny Speeds.
Infernoprediction correct13:6
Johnny Speeds 53%MTX 47%
The model gave 53% on Johnny Speeds — the map was taken by Johnny Speeds.
Model check result
Model favoriteJohnny Speeds · 73%
Series resultJohnny Speeds 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2