NODWIN Clutch Series 10 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
36%64%
probability at match start · final 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Julie&Cie pick
40%50%
Julie&Cie · 6 mapsedge Mai Tai +10%Mai Tai · 0 maps
AncientMai Tai pick
33%50%
Julie&Cie · 5 mapsedge Mai Tai +17%Mai Tai · 0 maps
Defaultpossible decider
50%43%
Julie&Cie · 2 mapsedge Julie&Cie +7%Mai Tai · 3 maps
MirageJulie&Cie ban
25%40%
Julie&Cie · 4 mapsedge Mai Tai +15%Mai Tai · 1 map
InfernoMai Tai ban
38%50%
Julie&Cie · 4 mapsedge Mai Tai +12%Mai Tai · 0 maps
AnubisMai Tai ban
43%50%
Julie&Cie · 3 mapsedge Mai Tai +7%Mai Tai · 0 maps
CacheJulie&Cie ban
50%40%
Julie&Cie · 0 mapsedge Julie&Cie +10%Mai Tai · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanJulie&Cie remove Mirage
2. BanMai Tai remove Anubis
3. PickJulie&Cie take Dust2
4. PickMai Tai take Ancient
5. BanMai Tai remove Inferno
6. BanJulie&Cie remove Cache
DeciderDefault (50% / 43%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Defaultprediction correct1:0
Julie&Cie 57%Mai Tai 43%
The model gave 57% on Julie&Cie — the map was taken by Julie&Cie.
Model check result
Model favoriteMai Tai · 64%
Series resultJulie&Cie 1:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 1