ESL Challenger League Season 52 Europe Cup 8 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
30%70%
probability at match start · final 2:0
ENCE#112 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageJust Players pick
56%62%
Just Players · 44 mapsedge ENCE +6%ENCE · 22 maps
Dust2ENCE ban
40%44%
Just Players · 26 mapsnearly even -4%ENCE · 12 maps
AncientENCE ban
66%22%
Just Players · 31 mapedge Just Players +44%ENCE · 5 maps
NukeENCE pick
38%56%
Just Players · 20 mapsedge ENCE +18%ENCE · 14 maps
CacheJust Players ban
32%46%
Just Players · 15 mapsedge ENCE +14%ENCE · 9 maps
Anubispossible decider
46%54%
Just Players · 9 mapsedge ENCE +8%ENCE · 9 maps
InfernoJust Players ban
50%61%
Just Players · 0 mapsedge ENCE +11%ENCE · 14 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanJust Players remove Inferno
2. BanENCE remove Ancient
3. PickJust Players take Mirage
4. PickENCE take Nuke
5. BanENCE remove Dust2
6. BanJust Players remove Cache
DeciderAnubis (46% / 54%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction missed13:6
Just Players 30%ENCE 70%
The model gave 70% on ENCE — the map was taken by Just Players.
Mirageprediction missed13:8
Just Players 48%ENCE 52%
The model gave 52% on ENCE — the map was taken by Just Players.
Model check result
Model favoriteENCE · 70%
Series resultJust Players 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map0 of 2