NODWIN Clutch Series 10 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageJust Players pick
52%50%
Just Players · 25 mapsnearly even +2%ex-RUSTEC · 2 maps
Dust2ex-RUSTEC pick
33%50%
Just Players · 17 mapsedge ex-RUSTEC +17%ex-RUSTEC · 4 maps
Ancientex-RUSTEC ban
55%50%
Just Players · 18 mapsedge Just Players +5%ex-RUSTEC · 0 maps
NukeJust Players ban
47%40%
Just Players · 11 mapsedge Just Players +7%ex-RUSTEC · 1 map
Overpassex-RUSTEC ban
60%50%
Just Players · 6 mapsedge Just Players +10%ex-RUSTEC · 0 maps
DefaultJust Players ban
50%60%
Just Players · 4 mapsedge ex-RUSTEC +10%ex-RUSTEC · 1 map
Anubispossible decider
71%40%
Just Players · 3 mapsedge Just Players +31%ex-RUSTEC · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanJust Players remove Nuke
2. Banex-RUSTEC remove Ancient
3. PickJust Players take Mirage
4. Pickex-RUSTEC take Dust2
5. Banex-RUSTEC remove Overpass
6. BanJust Players remove Default
DeciderAnubis (71% / 40%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct5:13
Just Players 31%ex-RUSTEC 69%
The model gave 69% on ex-RUSTEC — the map was taken by ex-RUSTEC.
Mirageprediction missed14:16
Just Players 55%ex-RUSTEC 45%
The model gave 55% on Just Players — the map was taken by ex-RUSTEC.
Model check result
Model favoriteJust Players · 52%
Series resultex-RUSTEC 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2