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CCT 2026 Europe Series 3 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
Just Players#116 in the world · win 2:1
series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Lilmix#204 in the world · loss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageJust Players pick
57%43%
Just Players · 3 mapsedge Just Players +14%Lilmix · 10 maps
Dust2Lilmix ban
43%20%
Just Players · 3 mapsedge Just Players +23%Lilmix · 6 maps
Ancientpossible decider
50%50%
Just Players · 2 mapsnearly even +0%Lilmix · 6 maps
OverpassLilmix pick
67%63%
Just Players · 2 mapsnearly even +4%Lilmix · 4 maps
NukeLilmix ban
56%50%
Just Players · 5 mapsedge Just Players +6%Lilmix · 0 maps
DefaultJust Players ban
40%33%
Just Players · 1 mapedge Just Players +7%Lilmix · 2 maps
InfernoJust Players ban
50%71%
Just Players · 0 mapsedge Lilmix +21%Lilmix · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanJust Players remove Inferno
2. BanLilmix remove Nuke
3. PickJust Players take Mirage
4. PickLilmix take Overpass
5. BanLilmix remove Dust2
6. BanJust Players remove Default
DeciderAncient (50% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Overpassprediction missed9:13
Just Players 52%Lilmix 48%
The model gave 52% on Just Players — the map was taken by Lilmix.
Mirageprediction correct16:13
Just Players 67%Lilmix 33%
The model gave 67% on Just Players — the map was taken by Just Players.
Ancientprediction correct13:10
Just Players 50%Lilmix 50%
The model gave 50% on Just Players — the map was taken by Just Players.
Model check result
Model favoriteLilmix · 59%
Series resultJust Players 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 3