NODWIN Clutch Series 13 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 2:0
MAYBE#173 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageJust Players pick
53%53%
Just Players · 41 mapnearly even +0%MAYBE · 11 maps
AncientMAYBE ban
61%38%
Just Players · 27 mapsedge Just Players +23%MAYBE · 9 maps
Dust2possible decider
40%42%
Just Players · 26 mapsnearly even -2%MAYBE · 8 maps
NukeMAYBE ban
38%43%
Just Players · 20 mapsedge MAYBE +5%MAYBE · 3 maps
CacheJust Players ban
31%40%
Just Players · 12 mapsedge MAYBE +9%MAYBE · 6 maps
AnubisJust Players ban
46%43%
Just Players · 9 mapsnearly even +3%MAYBE · 3 maps
DefaultMAYBE pick
70%60%
Just Players · 6 mapsedge Just Players +10%MAYBE · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanJust Players remove Cache
2. BanMAYBE remove Nuke
3. PickJust Players take Mirage
4. PickMAYBE take Default
5. BanMAYBE remove Ancient
6. BanJust Players remove Anubis
DeciderDust2 (40% / 42%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction correct13:9
Just Players 69%MAYBE 31%
The model gave 69% on Just Players — the map was taken by Just Players.
Mirageprediction correct13:6
Just Players 53%MAYBE 47%
The model gave 53% on Just Players — the map was taken by Just Players.
Model check result
Model favoriteJust Players · 57%
Series resultJust Players 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2