NODWIN Clutch Series 13 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Misa#115 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageJust Players pick
59%44%
Just Players · 45 mapsedge Just Players +15%Misa · 21 map
Dust2possible decider
45%50%
Just Players · 27 mapsedge Misa +5%Misa · 28 maps
CacheJust Players ban
30%43%
Just Players · 16 mapsedge Misa +13%Misa · 26 maps
NukeMisa ban
40%45%
Just Players · 21 mapedge Misa +5%Misa · 18 maps
AncientMisa ban
67%40%
Just Players · 32 mapsedge Just Players +27%Misa · 6 maps
AnubisMisa pick
46%53%
Just Players · 9 mapsedge Misa +7%Misa · 28 maps
InfernoJust Players ban
50%57%
Just Players · 0 mapsedge Misa +7%Misa · 17 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanJust Players remove Inferno
2. BanMisa remove Ancient
3. PickJust Players take Mirage
4. PickMisa take Anubis
5. BanMisa remove Nuke
6. BanJust Players remove Cache
DeciderDust2 (45% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction missed16:12
Just Players 40%Misa 60%
The model gave 60% on Misa — the map was taken by Just Players.
Ancientprediction correct13:11
Just Players 77%Misa 23%
The model gave 77% on Just Players — the map was taken by Just Players.
Model check result
Model favoriteMisa · 55%
Series resultJust Players 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2