European Pro League Series 8 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
29%71%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Walczaki#149 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeWalczaki pick
46%61%
Just Players · 9 mapsedge Walczaki +15%Walczaki · 27 maps
AncientJust Players pick
55%68%
Just Players · 16 mapsedge Walczaki +13%Walczaki · 18 maps
Dust2Walczaki ban
41%43%
Just Players · 13 mapsnearly even -2%Walczaki · 17 maps
MirageWalczaki ban
52%71%
Just Players · 19 mapsedge Walczaki +19%Walczaki · 10 maps
AnubisJust Players ban
71%67%
Just Players · 3 mapsnearly even +4%Walczaki · 17 maps
InfernoJust Players ban
50%63%
Just Players · 0 mapsedge Walczaki +13%Walczaki · 12 maps
Defaultpossible decider
50%60%
Just Players · 4 mapsedge Walczaki +10%Walczaki · 6 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanJust Players remove Inferno
2. BanWalczaki remove Dust2
3. PickJust Players take Ancient
4. PickWalczaki take Nuke
5. BanWalczaki remove Mirage
6. BanJust Players remove Anubis
DeciderDefault (50% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction missed13:11
Just Players 32%Walczaki 68%
The model gave 68% on Walczaki — the map was taken by Just Players.
Mirageprediction missed13:10
Just Players 33%Walczaki 67%
The model gave 67% on Walczaki — the map was taken by Just Players.
Model check result
Model favoriteWalczaki · 71%
Series resultJust Players 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map0 of 2