Hero Esports Asian Champions League 2026 Closed Qualifier · BO1
result vs prediction
Just Swing#173 in the world · loss 9:13series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 9:13
Alter Ego#94 in the world · win 13:9The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeAlter Ego ban
67%40%
Just Swing · 2 mapsedge Just Swing +27%Alter Ego · 1 map
Defaultpossible decider
40%40%
Just Swing · 1 mapnearly even +0%Alter Ego · 1 map
Dust2Just Swing ban
40%60%
Just Swing · 1 mapedge Alter Ego +20%Alter Ego · 1 map
InfernoAlter Ego ban
50%50%
Just Swing · 2 mapsnearly even +0%Alter Ego · 0 maps
MirageJust Swing ban
50%50%
Just Swing · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Alter Ego · 2 maps
AncientAlter Ego ban
60%50%
Just Swing · 1 mapedge Just Swing +10%Alter Ego · 0 maps
AnubisJust Swing ban
60%50%
Just Swing · 1 mapedge Just Swing +10%Alter Ego · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanJust Swing remove Mirage
2. BanAlter Ego remove Inferno
3. BanJust Swing remove Dust2
4. BanAlter Ego remove Ancient
5. BanJust Swing remove Anubis
6. BanAlter Ego remove Nuke
DeciderDefault (40% / 40%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction missed9:13
Just Swing 75%Alter Ego 25%
The model gave 75% on Just Swing — the map was taken by Alter Ego.
Model check result
Model favoriteAlter Ego · 59%
Series resultAlter Ego 9:13
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 1