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ESL Challenger League Season 52 Asia-Pacific Cup 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Just Swing#158 in the world · loss 1:2
series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Alter Ego#120 in the world · win 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Alter Ego pick
44%65%
Just Swing · 12 mapsedge Alter Ego +21%Alter Ego · 13 maps
Ancientpossible decider
40%67%
Just Swing · 11 mapsedge Alter Ego +27%Alter Ego · 8 maps
CacheJust Swing pick
64%67%
Just Swing · 10 mapsnearly even -3%Alter Ego · 5 maps
InfernoAlter Ego ban
45%63%
Just Swing · 7 mapsedge Alter Ego +18%Alter Ego · 4 maps
NukeAlter Ego ban
63%50%
Just Swing · 4 mapsedge Just Swing +13%Alter Ego · 2 maps
MirageJust Swing ban
50%63%
Just Swing · 0 mapsedge Alter Ego +13%Alter Ego · 4 maps
AnubisJust Swing ban
50%60%
Just Swing · 0 mapsedge Alter Ego +10%Alter Ego · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanJust Swing remove Mirage
2. BanAlter Ego remove Nuke
3. PickJust Swing take Cache
4. PickAlter Ego take Dust2
5. BanAlter Ego remove Inferno
6. BanJust Swing remove Anubis
DeciderAncient (40% / 67%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction correct13:10
Just Swing 50%Alter Ego 50%
The model gave 50% on Just Swing — the map was taken by Just Swing.
Dust2prediction correct15:19
Just Swing 27%Alter Ego 73%
The model gave 73% on Alter Ego — the map was taken by Alter Ego.
Ancientprediction correct6:13
Just Swing 25%Alter Ego 75%
The model gave 75% on Alter Ego — the map was taken by Alter Ego.
Model check result
Model favoriteAlter Ego · 56%
Series resultAlter Ego 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map3 of 3