WINLINE MPKBK CIS LAN Season 8 · BO3
result vs prediction
K27#44 in the world · win 2:0series probability
72%28%
probability at match start · final 2:0
BAKS#112 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
CacheBAKS pick
48%70%
K27 · 21 mapedge BAKS +22%BAKS · 19 maps
NukeBAKS ban
43%40%
K27 · 19 mapsnearly even +3%BAKS · 11 maps
MirageK27 pick
65%60%
K27 · 19 mapsedge K27 +5%BAKS · 6 maps
Ancientpossible decider
50%70%
K27 · 16 mapsedge BAKS +20%BAKS · 6 maps
Dust2K27 ban
38%41%
K27 · 9 mapsnearly even -3%BAKS · 13 maps
AnubisBAKS ban
67%50%
K27 · 8 mapsedge K27 +17%BAKS · 0 maps
InfernoK27 ban
50%33%
K27 · 0 mapsedge K27 +17%BAKS · 8 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanK27 remove Inferno
2. BanBAKS remove Anubis
3. PickK27 take Mirage
4. PickBAKS take Cache
5. BanBAKS remove Nuke
6. BanK27 remove Dust2
DeciderAncient (50% / 70%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction missed19:17
K27 26%BAKS 74%
The model gave 74% on BAKS — the map was taken by K27.
Nukeprediction correct13:10
K27 57%BAKS 43%
The model gave 57% on K27 — the map was taken by K27.
Model check result
Model favoriteK27 · 72%
Series resultK27 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2