Esports World Cup 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
K27#44 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 0:2
MIBR#12 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageK27 pick
68%57%
K27 · 15 mapsedge K27 +11%MIBR · 10 maps
NukeK27 ban
24%64%
K27 · 13 mapsedge MIBR +40%MIBR · 7 maps
Ancientpossible decider
67%36%
K27 · 11 mapsedge K27 +31%MIBR · 7 maps
AnubisMIBR pick
50%71%
K27 · 6 mapsedge MIBR +21%MIBR · 3 maps
Dust2MIBR ban
64%50%
K27 · 7 mapsedge K27 +14%MIBR · 0 maps
InfernoK27 ban
50%45%
K27 · 0 mapsedge K27 +5%MIBR · 7 maps
CacheMIBR ban
78%60%
K27 · 5 mapsedge K27 +18%MIBR · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanK27 remove Inferno
2. BanMIBR remove Dust2
3. PickK27 take Mirage
4. PickMIBR take Anubis
5. BanMIBR remove Cache
6. BanK27 remove Nuke
DeciderAncient (67% / 36%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction missed10:13
K27 72%MIBR 28%
The model gave 72% on K27 — the map was taken by MIBR.
Nukeprediction correct5:13
K27 13%MIBR 87%
The model gave 87% on MIBR — the map was taken by MIBR.
Model check result
Model favoriteMIBR · 56%
Series resultMIBR 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2