1win Private Club Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
K27#44 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 0:2
SINNERS#45 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Cachepossible decider
48%44%
K27 · 21 mapnearly even +4%SINNERS · 14 maps
MirageK27 pick
68%53%
K27 · 18 mapsedge K27 +15%SINNERS · 13 maps
AncientK27 ban
53%56%
K27 · 15 mapsnearly even -3%SINNERS · 14 maps
Dust2SINNERS pick
42%65%
K27 · 8 mapsedge SINNERS +23%SINNERS · 19 maps
NukeSINNERS ban
45%38%
K27 · 18 mapsedge K27 +7%SINNERS · 4 maps
InfernoK27 ban
50%40%
K27 · 0 mapsedge K27 +10%SINNERS · 11 maps
AnubisSINNERS ban
67%50%
K27 · 8 mapsedge K27 +17%SINNERS · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanK27 remove Inferno
2. BanSINNERS remove Anubis
3. PickK27 take Mirage
4. PickSINNERS take Dust2
5. BanSINNERS remove Nuke
6. BanK27 remove Ancient
DeciderCache (48% / 44%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction missed6:13
K27 61%SINNERS 39%
The model gave 61% on K27 — the map was taken by SINNERS.
Ancientprediction correct10:13
K27 44%SINNERS 56%
The model gave 56% on SINNERS — the map was taken by SINNERS.
Model check result
Model favoriteK27 · 54%
Series resultSINNERS 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2