Stake Ranked Episode 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
K27#44 in the world · win 2:0series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Wildcard#46 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Wildcard ban
63%62%
K27 · 4 mapsnearly even +1%Wildcard · 9 maps
NukeK27 ban
27%67%
K27 · 7 mapsedge Wildcard +40%Wildcard · 5 maps
MirageWildcard pick
55%71%
K27 · 7 mapsedge Wildcard +16%Wildcard · 3 maps
OverpassK27 pick
60%57%
K27 · 6 mapsnearly even +3%Wildcard · 3 maps
AncientWildcard ban
58%50%
K27 · 8 mapsedge K27 +8%Wildcard · 0 maps
Defaultpossible decider
33%75%
K27 · 2 mapsedge Wildcard +42%Wildcard · 4 maps
InfernoK27 ban
50%44%
K27 · 0 mapsedge K27 +6%Wildcard · 5 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanK27 remove Inferno
2. BanWildcard remove Ancient
3. PickK27 take Overpass
4. PickWildcard take Mirage
5. BanWildcard remove Dust2
6. BanK27 remove Nuke
DeciderDefault (33% / 75%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed13:8
K27 35%Wildcard 65%
The model gave 65% on Wildcard — the map was taken by K27.
Dust2prediction missed16:13
K27 48%Wildcard 52%
The model gave 52% on Wildcard — the map was taken by K27.
Model check result
Model favoriteWildcard · 59%
Series resultK27 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map0 of 2