ESL Challenger League Season 52 Asia-Pacific Cup 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Kaleido#154 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Chinggis Warriors#116 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientKaleido pick
50%59%
Kaleido · 18 mapsedge Chinggis Warriors +9%Chinggis Warriors · 13 maps
Dust2Chinggis Warriors ban
72%50%
Kaleido · 14 mapsedge Kaleido +22%Chinggis Warriors · 12 maps
NukeChinggis Warriors pick
57%60%
Kaleido · 3 mapsnearly even -3%Chinggis Warriors · 21 map
InfernoKaleido ban
38%61%
Kaleido · 9 mapsedge Chinggis Warriors +23%Chinggis Warriors · 14 maps
Miragepossible decider
50%56%
Kaleido · 8 mapsedge Chinggis Warriors +6%Chinggis Warriors · 5 maps
CacheKaleido ban
25%50%
Kaleido · 4 mapsedge Chinggis Warriors +25%Chinggis Warriors · 2 maps
AnubisChinggis Warriors ban
33%29%
Kaleido · 2 mapsnearly even +4%Chinggis Warriors · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanKaleido remove Cache
2. BanChinggis Warriors remove Anubis
3. PickKaleido take Ancient
4. PickChinggis Warriors take Nuke
5. BanChinggis Warriors remove Dust2
6. BanKaleido remove Inferno
DeciderMirage (50% / 56%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed13:10
Kaleido 44%Chinggis Warriors 56%
The model gave 56% on Chinggis Warriors — the map was taken by Kaleido.
Infernoprediction correct10:13
Kaleido 26%Chinggis Warriors 74%
The model gave 74% on Chinggis Warriors — the map was taken by Chinggis Warriors.
Mirageprediction correct11:13
Kaleido 44%Chinggis Warriors 56%
The model gave 56% on Chinggis Warriors — the map was taken by Chinggis Warriors.
Model check result
Model favoriteChinggis Warriors · 57%
Series resultChinggis Warriors 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3