ESL Challenger League Season 52 Asia-Pacific Cup 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Kaleido#154 in the world · win 2:1series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 2:1
LEGAMloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientLEGAM ban
56%50%
Kaleido · 5 mapsedge Kaleido +6%LEGAM · 0 maps
InfernoLEGAM ban
33%50%
Kaleido · 5 mapsedge LEGAM +17%LEGAM · 0 maps
CacheKaleido ban
33%40%
Kaleido · 2 mapsedge LEGAM +7%LEGAM · 1 map
Dust2Kaleido pick
50%50%
Kaleido · 2 mapsnearly even +0%LEGAM · 0 maps
NukeKaleido ban
50%50%
Kaleido · 2 mapsnearly even +0%LEGAM · 0 maps
AnubisLEGAM pick
50%40%
Kaleido · 0 mapsedge Kaleido +10%LEGAM · 1 map
Miragepossible decider
40%50%
Kaleido · 1 mapedge LEGAM +10%LEGAM · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanKaleido remove Nuke
2. BanLEGAM remove Ancient
3. PickKaleido take Dust2
4. PickLEGAM take Anubis
5. BanLEGAM remove Inferno
6. BanKaleido remove Cache
DeciderMirage (40% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct9:13
Kaleido 47%LEGAM 53%
The model gave 53% on LEGAM — the map was taken by LEGAM.
Ancientprediction correct16:12
Kaleido 58%LEGAM 42%
The model gave 58% on Kaleido — the map was taken by Kaleido.
Mirageprediction missed16:14
Kaleido 40%LEGAM 60%
The model gave 60% on LEGAM — the map was taken by Kaleido.
Model check result
Model favoriteKaleido · 62%
Series resultKaleido 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3