ESL Challenger League Season 52 Asia-Pacific Cup 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Kaleido#154 in the world · win 1:0series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 1:0
The KnockoutX#287 in the world · loss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientKaleido pick
56%67%
Kaleido · 12 mapsedge The KnockoutX +11%The KnockoutX · 2 maps
Dust2The KnockoutX ban
62%40%
Kaleido · 9 mapsedge Kaleido +22%The KnockoutX · 1 map
InfernoThe KnockoutX pick
42%50%
Kaleido · 8 mapsedge The KnockoutX +8%The KnockoutX · 0 maps
Miragepossible decider
50%50%
Kaleido · 4 mapsnearly even +0%The KnockoutX · 2 maps
CacheKaleido ban
25%50%
Kaleido · 4 mapsedge The KnockoutX +25%The KnockoutX · 0 maps
AnubisKaleido ban
33%50%
Kaleido · 2 mapsedge The KnockoutX +17%The KnockoutX · 0 maps
NukeThe KnockoutX ban
50%50%
Kaleido · 2 mapsnearly even +0%The KnockoutX · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanKaleido remove Cache
2. BanThe KnockoutX remove Nuke
3. PickKaleido take Ancient
4. PickThe KnockoutX take Inferno
5. BanThe KnockoutX remove Dust2
6. BanKaleido remove Anubis
DeciderMirage (50% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Defaultprediction correct1:0
Kaleido 50%The KnockoutX 50%
The model gave 50% on Kaleido — the map was taken by Kaleido.
Model check result
Model favoriteKaleido · 67%
Series resultKaleido 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 1