5EPlay Professional Challenge Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Kaleido#154 in the world · win 2:0series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 2:0
WXMloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientKaleido pick
53%40%
Kaleido · 11 mapsedge Kaleido +13%WXM · 1 map
Dust2WXM ban
58%60%
Kaleido · 8 mapsnearly even -2%WXM · 1 map
InfernoKaleido ban
42%40%
Kaleido · 8 mapsnearly even +2%WXM · 1 map
Miragepossible decider
50%57%
Kaleido · 4 mapsedge WXM +7%WXM · 3 maps
CacheKaleido ban
25%50%
Kaleido · 4 mapsedge WXM +25%WXM · 0 maps
AnubisWXM pick
33%60%
Kaleido · 2 mapsedge WXM +27%WXM · 1 map
NukeWXM ban
50%40%
Kaleido · 2 mapsedge Kaleido +10%WXM · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanKaleido remove Cache
2. BanWXM remove Nuke
3. PickKaleido take Ancient
4. PickWXM take Anubis
5. BanWXM remove Dust2
6. BanKaleido remove Inferno
DeciderMirage (50% / 57%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed13:4
Kaleido 45%WXM 55%
The model gave 55% on WXM — the map was taken by Kaleido.
Ancientprediction correct13:6
Kaleido 66%WXM 34%
The model gave 66% on Kaleido — the map was taken by Kaleido.
Model check result
Model favoriteKaleido · 60%
Series resultKaleido 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2