Exort Fiesta Series 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
KAMUI#187 in the world · win 2:0series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Fortress#236 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
CacheKAMUI ban
50%21%
KAMUI · 0 mapsedge KAMUI +29%Fortress · 10 maps
AncientKAMUI pick
40%36%
KAMUI · 1 mapnearly even +4%Fortress · 7 maps
Anubispossible decider
50%40%
KAMUI · 0 mapsedge KAMUI +10%Fortress · 6 maps
MirageFortress ban
60%22%
KAMUI · 1 mapedge KAMUI +38%Fortress · 5 maps
NukeFortress ban
50%30%
KAMUI · 0 mapsedge KAMUI +20%Fortress · 6 maps
InfernoFortress pick
50%33%
KAMUI · 0 mapsedge KAMUI +17%Fortress · 5 maps
DefaultKAMUI ban
50%67%
KAMUI · 0 mapsedge Fortress +17%Fortress · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanKAMUI remove Default
2. BanFortress remove Mirage
3. PickKAMUI take Ancient
4. PickFortress take Inferno
5. BanFortress remove Nuke
6. BanKAMUI remove Cache
DeciderAnubis (50% / 40%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct13:5
KAMUI 86%Fortress 14%
The model gave 86% on KAMUI — the map was taken by KAMUI.
Cacheprediction correct13:5
KAMUI 76%Fortress 24%
The model gave 76% on KAMUI — the map was taken by KAMUI.
Model check result
Model favoriteFortress · 53%
Series resultKAMUI 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 2