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Thunderpick World Championship 2026 South America Series 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Keyd Stars#155 in the world · win 2:0
series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 2:0
MIBR Academy#134 in the world · loss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientKeyd Stars pick
53%46%
Keyd Stars · 11 mapsedge Keyd Stars +7%MIBR Academy · 9 maps
NukeMIBR Academy pick
38%60%
Keyd Stars · 9 mapsedge MIBR Academy +22%MIBR Academy · 11 maps
Dust2MIBR Academy ban
56%33%
Keyd Stars · 14 mapsedge Keyd Stars +23%MIBR Academy · 5 maps
MirageKeyd Stars ban
50%62%
Keyd Stars · 8 mapsedge MIBR Academy +12%MIBR Academy · 9 maps
AnubisMIBR Academy ban
63%50%
Keyd Stars · 4 mapsedge Keyd Stars +13%MIBR Academy · 4 maps
OverpassKeyd Stars ban
50%38%
Keyd Stars · 2 mapsedge Keyd Stars +12%MIBR Academy · 4 maps
Defaultpossible decider
60%71%
Keyd Stars · 1 mapedge MIBR Academy +11%MIBR Academy · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanKeyd Stars remove Overpass
2. BanMIBR Academy remove Dust2
3. PickKeyd Stars take Ancient
4. PickMIBR Academy take Nuke
5. BanMIBR Academy remove Anubis
6. BanKeyd Stars remove Mirage
DeciderDefault (60% / 71%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction missed13:9
Keyd Stars 27%MIBR Academy 73%
The model gave 73% on MIBR Academy — the map was taken by Keyd Stars.
Ancientprediction correct13:11
Keyd Stars 60%MIBR Academy 40%
The model gave 60% on Keyd Stars — the map was taken by Keyd Stars.
Model check result
Model favoriteKeyd Stars · 64%
Series resultKeyd Stars 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2