NSTLGA Emerald Cup 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
KODEX#242 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 1:2
EMPIRE#182 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Ancientpossible decider
29%56%
KODEX · 3 mapsedge EMPIRE +27%EMPIRE · 5 maps
NukeKODEX ban
33%60%
KODEX · 2 mapsedge EMPIRE +27%EMPIRE · 6 maps
Dust2EMPIRE pick
50%60%
KODEX · 0 mapsedge EMPIRE +10%EMPIRE · 6 maps
InfernoKODEX ban
50%40%
KODEX · 0 mapsedge KODEX +10%EMPIRE · 6 maps
MirageEMPIRE ban
50%33%
KODEX · 0 mapsedge KODEX +17%EMPIRE · 5 maps
CacheKODEX pick
50%33%
KODEX · 0 mapsedge KODEX +17%EMPIRE · 2 maps
DefaultEMPIRE ban
67%50%
KODEX · 2 mapsedge KODEX +17%EMPIRE · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanKODEX remove Inferno
2. BanEMPIRE remove Mirage
3. PickKODEX take Cache
4. PickEMPIRE take Dust2
5. BanEMPIRE remove Default
6. BanKODEX remove Nuke
DeciderAncient (29% / 56%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction correct6:13
KODEX 27%EMPIRE 73%
The model gave 73% on EMPIRE — the map was taken by EMPIRE.
Ancientprediction missed13:10
KODEX 22%EMPIRE 78%
The model gave 78% on EMPIRE — the map was taken by KODEX.
Dust2prediction correct5:13
KODEX 40%EMPIRE 60%
The model gave 60% on EMPIRE — the map was taken by EMPIRE.
Model check result
Model favoriteEMPIRE · 57%
Series resultEMPIRE 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3