CROSSFIRE Season 6 · BO3
result vs prediction
KODEX#244 in the world · win 1:0series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Unreal Nightmare#382 in the world · loss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientUnreal Nightmare ban
33%60%
KODEX · 2 mapsedge Unreal Nightmare +27%Unreal Nightmare · 1 map
MirageUnreal Nightmare ban
50%33%
KODEX · 0 mapsedge KODEX +17%Unreal Nightmare · 2 maps
NukeKODEX ban
40%40%
KODEX · 1 mapnearly even +0%Unreal Nightmare · 1 map
AnubisUnreal Nightmare pick
40%50%
KODEX · 1 mapedge Unreal Nightmare +10%Unreal Nightmare · 0 maps
CacheKODEX pick
50%40%
KODEX · 0 mapsedge KODEX +10%Unreal Nightmare · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanKODEX remove Nuke
2. BanUnreal Nightmare remove Mirage
3. PickKODEX take Cache
4. PickUnreal Nightmare take Anubis
5. BanUnreal Nightmare remove Ancient
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Defaultprediction correct1:0
KODEX 50%Unreal Nightmare 50%
The model gave 50% on KODEX — the map was taken by KODEX.
Model check result
Model favoriteKODEX · 62%
Series resultKODEX 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 1