European Pro League Series 7 · BO3
result vs prediction
KOLESIE#117 in the world · win 2:1series probability
77%23%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Lazer Cats#117 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientLazer Cats pick
50%60%
KOLESIE · 6 mapsedge Lazer Cats +10%Lazer Cats · 6 maps
Dust2Lazer Cats ban
33%22%
KOLESIE · 5 mapsedge KOLESIE +11%Lazer Cats · 5 maps
Miragepossible decider
56%43%
KOLESIE · 5 mapsedge KOLESIE +13%Lazer Cats · 3 maps
OverpassLazer Cats ban
50%50%
KOLESIE · 8 mapsnearly even +0%Lazer Cats · 0 maps
AnubisKOLESIE ban
38%50%
KOLESIE · 4 mapsedge Lazer Cats +12%Lazer Cats · 2 maps
NukeKOLESIE pick
56%60%
KOLESIE · 5 mapsnearly even -4%Lazer Cats · 1 map
InfernoKOLESIE ban
50%50%
KOLESIE · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Lazer Cats · 4 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanKOLESIE remove Inferno
2. BanLazer Cats remove Overpass
3. PickKOLESIE take Nuke
4. PickLazer Cats take Ancient
5. BanLazer Cats remove Dust2
6. BanKOLESIE remove Anubis
DeciderMirage (56% / 43%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed11:13
KOLESIE 66%Lazer Cats 34%
The model gave 66% on KOLESIE — the map was taken by Lazer Cats.
Ancientprediction missed13:5
KOLESIE 37%Lazer Cats 63%
The model gave 63% on Lazer Cats — the map was taken by KOLESIE.
Mirageprediction correct13:4
KOLESIE 63%Lazer Cats 37%
The model gave 63% on KOLESIE — the map was taken by KOLESIE.
Model check result
Model favoriteKOLESIE · 77%
Series resultKOLESIE 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 3