CCT 2026 Europe Series 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
KOLESIE#117 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Leo#89 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2KOLESIE ban
30%69%
KOLESIE · 6 mapsedge Leo +39%Leo · 9 maps
AnubisKOLESIE ban
44%38%
KOLESIE · 5 mapsedge KOLESIE +6%Leo · 9 maps
Ancientpossible decider
55%33%
KOLESIE · 7 mapsedge KOLESIE +22%Leo · 5 maps
MirageLeo ban
64%71%
KOLESIE · 7 mapsedge Leo +7%Leo · 3 maps
NukeLeo ban
64%33%
KOLESIE · 7 mapsedge KOLESIE +31%Leo · 2 maps
OverpassKOLESIE pick
50%50%
KOLESIE · 8 mapsnearly even +0%Leo · 0 maps
DefaultLeo pick
60%50%
KOLESIE · 1 mapedge KOLESIE +10%Leo · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanKOLESIE remove Dust2
2. BanLeo remove Nuke
3. PickKOLESIE take Overpass
4. PickLeo take Default
5. BanLeo remove Mirage
6. BanKOLESIE remove Anubis
DeciderAncient (55% / 33%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct17:19
KOLESIE 14%Leo 86%
The model gave 86% on Leo — the map was taken by Leo.
Nukeprediction correct13:3
KOLESIE 80%Leo 20%
The model gave 80% on KOLESIE — the map was taken by KOLESIE.
Ancientprediction missed6:13
KOLESIE 71%Leo 29%
The model gave 71% on KOLESIE — the map was taken by Leo.
Model check result
Model favoriteKOLESIE · 68%
Series resultLeo 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 3