AR3NA Epicbet Open Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
KOLESIE#117 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
72%28%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Phantom Academy#173 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeKOLESIE pick
63%50%
KOLESIE · 20 mapsedge KOLESIE +13%Phantom Academy · 0 maps
MiragePhantom Academy pick
63%63%
KOLESIE · 12 mapsnearly even +0%Phantom Academy · 4 maps
Dust2KOLESIE ban
42%50%
KOLESIE · 15 mapsedge Phantom Academy +8%Phantom Academy · 0 maps
Ancientpossible decider
41%60%
KOLESIE · 13 mapsedge Phantom Academy +19%Phantom Academy · 1 map
OverpassPhantom Academy ban
60%50%
KOLESIE · 11 mapsedge KOLESIE +10%Phantom Academy · 0 maps
AnubisKOLESIE ban
54%60%
KOLESIE · 9 mapsedge Phantom Academy +6%Phantom Academy · 1 map
DefaultPhantom Academy ban
60%50%
KOLESIE · 1 mapedge KOLESIE +10%Phantom Academy · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanKOLESIE remove Anubis
2. BanPhantom Academy remove Overpass
3. PickKOLESIE take Nuke
4. PickPhantom Academy take Mirage
5. BanPhantom Academy remove Default
6. BanKOLESIE remove Dust2
DeciderAncient (41% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct4:13
KOLESIE 39%Phantom Academy 61%
The model gave 61% on Phantom Academy — the map was taken by Phantom Academy.
Nukeprediction missed8:13
KOLESIE 65%Phantom Academy 35%
The model gave 65% on KOLESIE — the map was taken by Phantom Academy.
Model check result
Model favoriteKOLESIE · 72%
Series resultPhantom Academy 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2