Elisa Esports BreakOut Series 1 · BO1
result vs prediction
KUUSAMO#177 in the world · win 13:5series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 13:5
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Miragepossible decider
50%40%
KUUSAMO · 2 mapsedge KUUSAMO +10%BOJONG · 1 map
NukeKUUSAMO ban
33%50%
KUUSAMO · 2 mapsedge BOJONG +17%BOJONG · 0 maps
AncientKUUSAMO ban
40%50%
KUUSAMO · 1 mapedge BOJONG +10%BOJONG · 0 maps
InfernoBOJONG ban
40%50%
KUUSAMO · 1 mapedge BOJONG +10%BOJONG · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanKUUSAMO remove Ancient
2. BanBOJONG remove Inferno
3. BanKUUSAMO remove Nuke
DeciderMirage (50% / 40%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct13:5
KUUSAMO 60%BOJONG 40%
The model gave 60% on KUUSAMO — the map was taken by KUUSAMO.
Model check result
Model favoriteKUUSAMO · 52%
Series resultKUUSAMO 13:5
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 1