Urban Riga Open Season 7 · BO1
result vs prediction
KUUSAMO#177 in the world · loss 6:13series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 6:13
INFURITY#115 in the world · win 13:6The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeINFURITY ban
64%43%
KUUSAMO · 10 mapsedge KUUSAMO +21%INFURITY · 3 maps
AncientKUUSAMO ban
29%71%
KUUSAMO · 3 mapsedge INFURITY +42%INFURITY · 3 maps
Infernopossible decider
43%57%
KUUSAMO · 3 mapsedge INFURITY +14%INFURITY · 3 maps
MirageINFURITY ban
50%50%
KUUSAMO · 6 mapsnearly even +0%INFURITY · 0 maps
CacheKUUSAMO ban
50%40%
KUUSAMO · 4 mapsedge KUUSAMO +10%INFURITY · 1 map
Dust2INFURITY ban
38%40%
KUUSAMO · 4 mapsnearly even -2%INFURITY · 1 map
AnubisKUUSAMO ban
50%43%
KUUSAMO · 0 mapsedge KUUSAMO +7%INFURITY · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanKUUSAMO remove Anubis
2. BanINFURITY remove Mirage
3. BanKUUSAMO remove Ancient
4. BanINFURITY remove Dust2
5. BanKUUSAMO remove Cache
6. BanINFURITY remove Nuke
DeciderInferno (43% / 57%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction correct6:13
KUUSAMO 36%INFURITY 64%
The model gave 64% on INFURITY — the map was taken by INFURITY.
Model check result
Model favoriteINFURITY · 59%
Series resultINFURITY 6:13
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 1