ESEA Advanced Season 58 Europe · BO3
result vs prediction
KUUSAMO#186 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoKUUSAMO ban
40%50%
KUUSAMO · 1 mapedge Spirit Academy Green +10%Spirit Academy Green · 0 maps
MirageSpirit Academy Green ban
60%50%
KUUSAMO · 1 mapedge KUUSAMO +10%Spirit Academy Green · 0 maps
NukeKUUSAMO pick
40%50%
KUUSAMO · 1 mapedge Spirit Academy Green +10%Spirit Academy Green · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanKUUSAMO remove Inferno
2. BanSpirit Academy Green remove Mirage
3. PickKUUSAMO take Nuke
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed3:13
KUUSAMO 63%Spirit Academy Green 37%
The model gave 63% on KUUSAMO — the map was taken by Spirit Academy Green.
Dust2prediction correct4:13
KUUSAMO 47%Spirit Academy Green 53%
The model gave 53% on Spirit Academy Green — the map was taken by Spirit Academy Green.
Model check result
Model favoriteKUUSAMO · 60%
Series resultSpirit Academy Green 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2