ESEA Advanced Season 58 North America · BO3
result vs prediction
LAG#95 in the world · win 2:0series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 2:0
NuTorious#204 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoLAG ban
45%36%
LAG · 7 mapsedge LAG +9%NuTorious · 7 maps
Ancientpossible decider
50%27%
LAG · 6 mapsedge LAG +23%NuTorious · 7 maps
MirageNuTorious pick
50%67%
LAG · 4 mapsedge NuTorious +17%NuTorious · 5 maps
Dust2NuTorious ban
55%50%
LAG · 7 mapsedge LAG +5%NuTorious · 0 maps
NukeNuTorious ban
50%40%
LAG · 6 mapsedge LAG +10%NuTorious · 1 map
AnubisLAG pick
71%33%
LAG · 3 mapsedge LAG +38%NuTorious · 2 maps
CacheLAG ban
50%43%
LAG · 0 mapsedge LAG +7%NuTorious · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanLAG remove Cache
2. BanNuTorious remove Dust2
3. PickLAG take Anubis
4. PickNuTorious take Mirage
5. BanNuTorious remove Nuke
6. BanLAG remove Inferno
DeciderAncient (50% / 27%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed13:8
LAG 31%NuTorious 69%
The model gave 69% on NuTorious — the map was taken by LAG.
Nukeprediction correct16:13
LAG 63%NuTorious 37%
The model gave 63% on LAG — the map was taken by LAG.
Model check result
Model favoriteLAG · 67%
Series resultLAG 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2