Hero Esports Asian Champions League 2026 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
Last Bullet#210 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Alter Ego#94 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Alter Ego pick
57%60%
Last Bullet · 3 mapsnearly even -3%Alter Ego · 1 map
MirageLast Bullet pick
67%50%
Last Bullet · 2 mapsedge Last Bullet +17%Alter Ego · 2 maps
DefaultAlter Ego ban
60%40%
Last Bullet · 1 mapedge Last Bullet +20%Alter Ego · 1 map
NukeAlter Ego ban
50%50%
Last Bullet · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Alter Ego · 2 maps
AncientLast Bullet ban
40%50%
Last Bullet · 1 mapedge Alter Ego +10%Alter Ego · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanLast Bullet remove Ancient
2. BanAlter Ego remove Default
3. PickLast Bullet take Mirage
4. PickAlter Ego take Dust2
5. BanAlter Ego remove Nuke
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed9:13
Last Bullet 50%Alter Ego 50%
The model gave 50% on Last Bullet — the map was taken by Alter Ego.
Nukeprediction correct10:13
Last Bullet 47%Alter Ego 53%
The model gave 53% on Alter Ego — the map was taken by Alter Ego.
Model check result
Model favoriteAlter Ego · 53%
Series resultAlter Ego 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2