BC Game Masters Europe Season 2 Series 1 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 2:0
aAa#132 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoLavked pick
60%40%
Lavked · 1 mapedge Lavked +20%aAa · 1 map
MirageaAa ban
67%50%
Lavked · 2 mapsedge Lavked +17%aAa · 0 maps
AncientaAa pick
60%50%
Lavked · 1 mapedge Lavked +10%aAa · 0 maps
NukeLavked ban
50%40%
Lavked · 0 mapsedge Lavked +10%aAa · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanLavked remove Nuke
2. BanaAa remove Mirage
3. PickLavked take Inferno
4. PickaAa take Ancient
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed13:5
Lavked 47%aAa 53%
The model gave 53% on aAa — the map was taken by Lavked.
Nukeprediction correct13:4
Lavked 63%aAa 37%
The model gave 63% on Lavked — the map was taken by Lavked.
Model check result
Model favoriteLavked · 58%
Series resultLavked 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2