ESL Challenger League Season 52 Europe Cup 3 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
38%62%
probability at match start · final 2:0
BASEMENT BOYS#96 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageLavked pick
43%57%
Lavked · 26 mapsedge BASEMENT BOYS +14%BASEMENT BOYS · 10 maps
Dust2Lavked ban
38%54%
Lavked · 12 mapsedge BASEMENT BOYS +16%BASEMENT BOYS · 9 maps
NukeBASEMENT BOYS pick
38%63%
Lavked · 9 mapsedge BASEMENT BOYS +25%BASEMENT BOYS · 12 maps
AnubisBASEMENT BOYS ban
59%56%
Lavked · 13 mapsnearly even +3%BASEMENT BOYS · 5 maps
Ancientpossible decider
50%57%
Lavked · 6 mapsedge BASEMENT BOYS +7%BASEMENT BOYS · 10 maps
InfernoBASEMENT BOYS ban
60%40%
Lavked · 1 mapedge Lavked +20%BASEMENT BOYS · 6 maps
CacheLavked ban
40%63%
Lavked · 1 mapedge BASEMENT BOYS +23%BASEMENT BOYS · 4 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanLavked remove Cache
2. BanBASEMENT BOYS remove Inferno
3. PickLavked take Mirage
4. PickBASEMENT BOYS take Nuke
5. BanBASEMENT BOYS remove Anubis
6. BanLavked remove Dust2
DeciderAncient (50% / 57%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed13:10
Lavked 46%BASEMENT BOYS 54%
The model gave 54% on BASEMENT BOYS — the map was taken by Lavked.
Dust2prediction missed13:3
Lavked 31%BASEMENT BOYS 69%
The model gave 69% on BASEMENT BOYS — the map was taken by Lavked.
Model check result
Model favoriteBASEMENT BOYS · 62%
Series resultLavked 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map0 of 2