Exort Fiesta Series 1 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
33%67%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Black Phoenix#57 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageLavked pick
41%47%
Lavked · 25 mapsedge Black Phoenix +6%Black Phoenix · 11 maps
Dust2Black Phoenix pick
50%67%
Lavked · 14 mapsedge Black Phoenix +17%Black Phoenix · 17 maps
Nukepossible decider
33%46%
Lavked · 11 mapsedge Black Phoenix +13%Black Phoenix · 9 maps
AnubisBlack Phoenix ban
64%20%
Lavked · 10 mapsedge Lavked +44%Black Phoenix · 6 maps
AncientBlack Phoenix ban
47%50%
Lavked · 11 mapsnearly even -3%Black Phoenix · 0 maps
InfernoLavked ban
43%58%
Lavked · 3 mapsedge Black Phoenix +15%Black Phoenix · 8 maps
CacheLavked ban
40%64%
Lavked · 1 mapedge Black Phoenix +24%Black Phoenix · 7 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanLavked remove Cache
2. BanBlack Phoenix remove Ancient
3. PickLavked take Mirage
4. PickBlack Phoenix take Dust2
5. BanBlack Phoenix remove Anubis
6. BanLavked remove Inferno
DeciderNuke (33% / 46%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed16:13
Lavked 48%Black Phoenix 52%
The model gave 52% on Black Phoenix — the map was taken by Lavked.
Nukeprediction missed13:8
Lavked 34%Black Phoenix 66%
The model gave 66% on Black Phoenix — the map was taken by Lavked.
Model check result
Model favoriteBlack Phoenix · 67%
Series resultLavked 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map0 of 2