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BC Game Masters Europe Season 2 Series 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Lavked#140 in the world · win 2:1
series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 2:1
ex-Zero Tenacity#56 in the world · loss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageLavked pick
61%43%
Lavked · 19 mapsedge Lavked +18%ex-Zero Tenacity · 3 maps
Dust2Lavked ban
41%50%
Lavked · 13 mapsedge ex-Zero Tenacity +9%ex-Zero Tenacity · 6 maps
Nukepossible decider
61%56%
Lavked · 14 mapsedge Lavked +5%ex-Zero Tenacity · 5 maps
Infernoex-Zero Tenacity pick
31%56%
Lavked · 9 mapsedge ex-Zero Tenacity +25%ex-Zero Tenacity · 5 maps
Ancientex-Zero Tenacity ban
77%50%
Lavked · 9 mapsedge Lavked +27%ex-Zero Tenacity · 0 maps
AnubisLavked ban
43%38%
Lavked · 3 mapsedge Lavked +5%ex-Zero Tenacity · 4 maps
Overpassex-Zero Tenacity ban
50%40%
Lavked · 2 mapsedge Lavked +10%ex-Zero Tenacity · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanLavked remove Anubis
2. Banex-Zero Tenacity remove Ancient
3. PickLavked take Mirage
4. Pickex-Zero Tenacity take Inferno
5. Banex-Zero Tenacity remove Overpass
6. BanLavked remove Dust2
DeciderNuke (61% / 56%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct15:19
Lavked 38%ex-Zero Tenacity 62%
The model gave 62% on ex-Zero Tenacity — the map was taken by ex-Zero Tenacity.
Mirageprediction correct13:7
Lavked 70%ex-Zero Tenacity 30%
The model gave 70% on Lavked — the map was taken by Lavked.
Nukeprediction correct13:8
Lavked 56%ex-Zero Tenacity 44%
The model gave 56% on Lavked — the map was taken by Lavked.
Model check result
Model favoriteLavked · 64%
Series resultLavked 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map3 of 3