WINLINE MPKBK CIS LAN Season 6 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageLavked pick
57%50%
Lavked · 33 mapsedge Lavked +7%FIN · 0 maps
Dust2FIN pick
40%50%
Lavked · 21 mapedge FIN +10%FIN · 0 maps
Nukepossible decider
57%50%
Lavked · 19 mapsedge Lavked +7%FIN · 0 maps
AncientFIN ban
73%50%
Lavked · 11 mapsedge Lavked +23%FIN · 0 maps
AnubisFIN ban
60%50%
Lavked · 11 mapsedge Lavked +10%FIN · 0 maps
InfernoLavked ban
25%50%
Lavked · 8 mapsedge FIN +25%FIN · 0 maps
OverpassLavked ban
50%50%
Lavked · 4 mapsnearly even +0%FIN · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanLavked remove Inferno
2. BanFIN remove Ancient
3. PickLavked take Mirage
4. PickFIN take Dust2
5. BanFIN remove Anubis
6. BanLavked remove Overpass
DeciderNuke (57% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct13:3
Lavked 54%FIN 46%
The model gave 54% on Lavked — the map was taken by Lavked.
Nukeprediction correct13:0
Lavked 59%FIN 41%
The model gave 59% on Lavked — the map was taken by Lavked.
Model check result
Model favoriteLavked · 67%
Series resultLavked 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2