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BC Game Masters Europe Season 2 Series 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Lavked#140 in the world · win 2:1
series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 2:1
HEROIC Academy#100 in the world · loss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageLavked pick
63%56%
Lavked · 20 mapsedge Lavked +7%HEROIC Academy · 5 maps
NukeHEROIC Academy ban
63%29%
Lavked · 15 mapsedge Lavked +34%HEROIC Academy · 3 maps
Dust2HEROIC Academy ban
39%29%
Lavked · 14 mapsedge Lavked +10%HEROIC Academy · 3 maps
Ancientpossible decider
77%43%
Lavked · 9 mapsedge Lavked +34%HEROIC Academy · 3 maps
InfernoLavked ban
31%40%
Lavked · 9 mapsedge HEROIC Academy +9%HEROIC Academy · 1 map
AnubisLavked ban
43%50%
Lavked · 3 mapsedge HEROIC Academy +7%HEROIC Academy · 2 maps
OverpassHEROIC Academy pick
50%50%
Lavked · 2 mapsnearly even +0%HEROIC Academy · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanLavked remove Anubis
2. BanHEROIC Academy remove Nuke
3. PickLavked take Mirage
4. PickHEROIC Academy take Overpass
5. BanHEROIC Academy remove Dust2
6. BanLavked remove Inferno
DeciderAncient (77% / 43%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction correct1:13
Lavked 40%HEROIC Academy 60%
The model gave 60% on HEROIC Academy — the map was taken by HEROIC Academy.
Mirageprediction correct13:8
Lavked 60%HEROIC Academy 40%
The model gave 60% on Lavked — the map was taken by Lavked.
Dust2prediction correct13:10
Lavked 61%HEROIC Academy 39%
The model gave 61% on Lavked — the map was taken by Lavked.
Model check result
Model favoriteLavked · 64%
Series resultLavked 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map3 of 3