ESL Challenger League Season 51 Europe Cup 4 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Lilmix#191 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageLavked pick
60%43%
Lavked · 1 mapedge Lavked +17%Lilmix · 3 maps
AncientLilmix pick
50%67%
Lavked · 0 mapsedge Lilmix +17%Lilmix · 2 maps
Dust2Lilmix ban
50%33%
Lavked · 0 mapsedge Lavked +17%Lilmix · 2 maps
InfernoLilmix ban
60%50%
Lavked · 1 mapedge Lavked +10%Lilmix · 0 maps
OverpassLavked ban
50%60%
Lavked · 0 mapsedge Lilmix +10%Lilmix · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanLavked remove Overpass
2. BanLilmix remove Inferno
3. PickLavked take Mirage
4. PickLilmix take Ancient
5. BanLilmix remove Dust2
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed13:4
Lavked 31%Lilmix 69%
The model gave 69% on Lilmix — the map was taken by Lavked.
Mirageprediction correct13:3
Lavked 69%Lilmix 31%
The model gave 69% on Lavked — the map was taken by Lavked.
Model check result
Model favoriteLavked · 64%
Series resultLavked 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2