European Pro League Series 7 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Misa#115 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageLavked pick
62%50%
Lavked · 30 mapsedge Lavked +12%Misa · 8 maps
Dust2Misa pick
41%73%
Lavked · 18 mapsedge Misa +32%Misa · 11 maps
Nukepossible decider
55%50%
Lavked · 18 mapsedge Lavked +5%Misa · 8 maps
InfernoLavked ban
31%40%
Lavked · 9 mapsedge Misa +9%Misa · 6 maps
AnubisMisa ban
54%38%
Lavked · 9 mapsedge Lavked +16%Misa · 4 maps
AncientMisa ban
80%50%
Lavked · 11 mapsedge Lavked +30%Misa · 0 maps
OverpassLavked ban
43%33%
Lavked · 3 mapsedge Lavked +10%Misa · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanLavked remove Inferno
2. BanMisa remove Ancient
3. PickLavked take Mirage
4. PickMisa take Dust2
5. BanMisa remove Anubis
6. BanLavked remove Overpass
DeciderNuke (55% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed13:5
Lavked 18%Misa 82%
The model gave 82% on Misa — the map was taken by Lavked.
Mirageprediction correct13:10
Lavked 65%Misa 35%
The model gave 65% on Lavked — the map was taken by Lavked.
Model check result
Model favoriteLavked · 65%
Series resultLavked 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2