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BC Game Masters Europe Season 2 Series 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Lavked#140 in the world · win 2:1
series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 2:1
The Last Resort#159 in the world · loss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageLavked pick
62%33%
Lavked · 9 mapsedge Lavked +29%The Last Resort · 5 maps
NukeLavked ban
55%44%
Lavked · 7 mapsedge Lavked +11%The Last Resort · 5 maps
Ancientpossible decider
67%57%
Lavked · 5 mapsedge Lavked +10%The Last Resort · 3 maps
Dust2The Last Resort ban
50%50%
Lavked · 6 mapsnearly even +0%The Last Resort · 0 maps
InfernoThe Last Resort ban
50%40%
Lavked · 4 mapsedge Lavked +10%The Last Resort · 1 map
OverpassThe Last Resort pick
60%63%
Lavked · 1 mapnearly even -3%The Last Resort · 4 maps
AnubisLavked ban
50%71%
Lavked · 0 mapsedge The Last Resort +21%The Last Resort · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanLavked remove Anubis
2. BanThe Last Resort remove Dust2
3. PickLavked take Mirage
4. PickThe Last Resort take Overpass
5. BanThe Last Resort remove Inferno
6. BanLavked remove Nuke
DeciderAncient (67% / 57%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction missed3:13
Lavked 57%The Last Resort 43%
The model gave 57% on Lavked — the map was taken by The Last Resort.
Dust2prediction correct13:5
Lavked 53%The Last Resort 47%
The model gave 53% on Lavked — the map was taken by Lavked.
Nukeprediction correct13:11
Lavked 60%The Last Resort 40%
The model gave 60% on Lavked — the map was taken by Lavked.
Model check result
Model favoriteLavked · 61%
Series resultLavked 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3