Exort Fiesta Series 2 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Vexar#141 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientVexar pick
37%50%
Lavked · 15 mapsedge Vexar +13%Vexar · 20 maps
MirageLavked ban
36%59%
Lavked · 18 mapsedge Vexar +23%Vexar · 13 maps
NukeVexar ban
47%36%
Lavked · 15 mapsedge Lavked +11%Vexar · 10 maps
Dust2Lavked pick
62%56%
Lavked · 17 mapsedge Lavked +6%Vexar · 5 maps
AnubisVexar ban
50%30%
Lavked · 8 mapsedge Lavked +20%Vexar · 6 maps
Defaultpossible decider
38%50%
Lavked · 4 mapsedge Vexar +12%Vexar · 8 maps
InfernoLavked ban
36%56%
Lavked · 7 mapsedge Vexar +20%Vexar · 5 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanLavked remove Inferno
2. BanVexar remove Anubis
3. PickLavked take Dust2
4. PickVexar take Ancient
5. BanVexar remove Nuke
6. BanLavked remove Mirage
DeciderDefault (38% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed8:13
Lavked 59%Vexar 41%
The model gave 59% on Lavked — the map was taken by Vexar.
Ancientprediction correct9:13
Lavked 34%Vexar 66%
The model gave 66% on Vexar — the map was taken by Vexar.
Model check result
Model favoriteLavked · 66%
Series resultVexar 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2