ESL Pro League Season 24 · BO3
result vs prediction
Legacy#6 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
85%15%
probability at match start · final 0:2
1win#33 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust21win pick
57%58%
Legacy · 10 mapsnearly even -1%1win · 29 maps
Ancientpossible decider
57%57%
Legacy · 10 mapsnearly even +0%1win · 19 maps
MirageLegacy pick
67%63%
Legacy · 8 mapsnearly even +4%1win · 15 maps
AnubisLegacy ban
50%35%
Legacy · 0 mapsedge Legacy +15%1win · 13 maps
CacheLegacy ban
50%53%
Legacy · 2 mapsnearly even -3%1win · 11 maps
Inferno1win ban
67%63%
Legacy · 5 mapsnearly even +4%1win · 4 maps
Nuke1win ban
67%50%
Legacy · 5 mapsedge Legacy +17%1win · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanLegacy remove Anubis
2. Ban1win remove Nuke
3. PickLegacy take Mirage
4. Pick1win take Dust2
5. Ban1win remove Inferno
6. BanLegacy remove Cache
DeciderAncient (57% / 57%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct8:13
Legacy 47%1win 53%
The model gave 53% on 1win — the map was taken by 1win.
Ancientprediction missed8:13
Legacy 54%1win 46%
The model gave 54% on Legacy — the map was taken by 1win.
Model check result
Model favoriteLegacy · 85%
Series result1win 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2