FISSURE Playground 3 · BO5
result vs prediction
Legacy#8 in the world · win 3:0series probability
38%62%
probability at match start · final 3:0
G2#8 in the world · loss 0:3The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientLegacy pick
58%60%
Legacy · 8 mapsnearly even -2%G2 · 11 maps
Dust2possible decider
50%38%
Legacy · 10 mapsedge Legacy +12%G2 · 9 maps
InfernoLegacy pick
78%71%
Legacy · 5 mapsedge Legacy +7%G2 · 10 maps
MirageG2 pick
60%62%
Legacy · 6 mapsnearly even -2%G2 · 9 maps
AnubisLegacy ban
50%45%
Legacy · 0 mapsedge Legacy +5%G2 · 7 maps
CacheG2 pick
50%43%
Legacy · 2 mapsedge Legacy +7%G2 · 3 maps
NukeG2 ban
63%50%
Legacy · 4 mapsedge Legacy +13%G2 · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanLegacy remove Anubis
2. BanG2 remove Nuke
3. PickLegacy take Inferno
4. PickG2 take Mirage
5. PickLegacy take Ancient
6. PickG2 take Cache
DeciderDust2 (50% / 38%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction correct13:9
Legacy 51%G2 49%
The model gave 51% on Legacy — the map was taken by Legacy.
Mirageprediction missed13:10
Legacy 45%G2 55%
The model gave 55% on G2 — the map was taken by Legacy.
Dust2prediction correct13:4
Legacy 64%G2 36%
The model gave 64% on Legacy — the map was taken by Legacy.
Model check result
Model favoriteG2 · 62%
Series resultLegacy 3:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 3