ESL Pro League Season 24 · BO3
result vs prediction
Legacy#6 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
87%13%
probability at match start · final 1:2
M80#27 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientLegacy ban
53%54%
Legacy · 11 mapsnearly even -1%M80 · 9 maps
Dust2M80 ban
53%45%
Legacy · 11 mapsedge Legacy +8%M80 · 7 maps
MirageLegacy pick
67%43%
Legacy · 8 mapsedge Legacy +24%M80 · 10 maps
Infernopossible decider
67%47%
Legacy · 5 mapsedge Legacy +20%M80 · 11 maps
CacheM80 pick
50%65%
Legacy · 2 mapsedge M80 +15%M80 · 13 maps
AnubisLegacy ban
50%50%
Legacy · 0 mapsnearly even +0%M80 · 6 maps
NukeM80 ban
67%50%
Legacy · 5 mapsedge Legacy +17%M80 · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanLegacy remove Anubis
2. BanM80 remove Nuke
3. PickLegacy take Mirage
4. PickM80 take Cache
5. BanM80 remove Dust2
6. BanLegacy remove Ancient
DeciderInferno (67% / 47%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction correct4:13
Legacy 33%M80 67%
The model gave 67% on M80 — the map was taken by M80.
Mirageprediction correct13:9
Legacy 75%M80 25%
The model gave 75% on Legacy — the map was taken by Legacy.
Dust2prediction missed7:13
Legacy 58%M80 42%
The model gave 58% on Legacy — the map was taken by M80.
Model check result
Model favoriteLegacy · 87%
Series resultM80 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 3